War and Warming
A deadly feedback loop
Here are two diagrams illustrating the cyclical relationship between war and warming.
War and Warming: A Deadly Climate Feedback Loop
Ever since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have been contributing significantly to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, leading to the amplification of global warming. One unexpectedly potent source of these harmful emissions is the machinery of war. Modern warfare not only wreaks havoc on human lives and societal infrastructure, but also immensely impacts global climate change by releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This initiates a vicious circle, or a positive feedback loop, wherein global warming amplified by warfare progressively influences more conflicts, thus fueling the loop, leading to both increasable wars and warming.
The war industry is powered by fossil fuels: the vehicles, jets, warships, and military exercises they are involved in produce tons of CO2. A noteworthy example here is the U.S. Department of Defense, which, if it was a country, would rank 47th in the world for carbon dioxide emissions, placing it ahead of countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal. Researches calculate that an average U.S. soldier in the Iraq war used about 27 times more fuel per day than during the World War II, clearly indicating the growing emission imprint of modern wars.
Moreover, wars cause massive deforestation and degradation of natural habitats, further adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and disrupting crucial carbon sequestration processes offered by forests and particular species of flora and fauna, thereby deteriorating the world's innate capacity to counteract climate change.
On the other hand, as the planet heats up due to anthropogenic activities, scarce resources like freshwater, arable land, and fisheries get even more reduced. This depletion is further exacerbated due to the climatic changes in patterns of rainfall, temperature, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This scarcity triggers conflicts and wars for resource control and ownership, establishing the return trajectory of our feedback loop.
Climate change forecasts project that certain regions, especially those surrounding the equator, will be disproportionately affected, raising the alarm for an increase in resource-related conflicts in these already volatile zones. Furthermore, studies have indicated a strong correlation between rising temperatures and increased violence, thereby providing evidence to the potential rise in global conflict with the increasing average global temperature projections.
The scarcity of resources leads to forced migration. The areas that are being deserted due to lack of resources conducive to survival or due to sea-level rise cause mass displacement of people. These climate refugees, in their pursuit of survival, might spark conflicts in the areas they migrate to, further propagating the cycle of war and warming. The Syrian Civil War, where an extended period of drought contributed to a mass migration of farmers into urban areas, triggering social unrest, is a poignant example of this process.
The interconnected nature of global warming and warfare, with one escalating another, is an alarming truth that humanity needs to address. Mitigation strategies to this threatening loop need to be devised at a pace much faster than the current one. We need to transform our energy systems and our international systems of cooperation to prevent this deadly feedback loop from spiraling out of control.
Minimizing military fossil fuel consumption, and gradually transitioning the warfare technology towards more sustainable alternatives, could considerably reduce greenhouse gas emissions. International laws need to be more stringent and diligently enforced, to protect environmental resources during armed conflicts. More holistic diplomatic strategies need to be employed to manage resource scarcity and mitigate conflicts.
To end the vicious cycle of war and warming, it is imperative that nations come together and form comprehensive alliances to combat both climate change and global conflict. War and warming present us with a daunting complex challenge and a compelling moral problem. Humanity's ability to survive and thrive on this planet requires us to reckon with, and ultimately disrupt, this deadly feedback loop.